The Middle East region has been a hotbed of tension and conflict for hundreds of years. The most recent escalation of tension was between Iran and Israel, which has also been one of the most long-standing and bitter feuds in the region. On August 25th, 2020, Iran issued a stern warning in response to a drone attack that occurred earlier in the day in the country’s eastern region. Here, we will examine the Iran threat, the background of the tension between the two countries and what these latest developments mean for the region.
History of Iran-Israel Tension
The tension between Iran and Israel goes back to the late 1970s, when the Iranian Revolution saw the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Israel and Iran have both been locked in a long-standing conflict since then, primarily over Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories and its support of the United States’ policies in the Middle East, as well as ideological differences arising from the Islamic Republic. This animosity has been further escalated by Iran’s pursuit of nuclear capabilities, and its role in supporting armed groups in the region, which Israel views as a direct threat.
The Recent Drone Attack
On August 25, 2020, Israel conducted a drone attack in a region east of Baghdad in Iraq. The attack was against an Iranian-backed militia, which was allegedly planning to carry out an attack against Israel in the coming weeks. In response, Iran issued a stern warning to Israel, saying that any further acts of aggression would be met with swift retaliation from the country.
Iran’s Response
The response from Iran was swift and unequivocal. It was not only a warning to Israel, but also a warning to the US, who is one of Israel’s staunchest allies. Iranian spokesperson Abbas Mousavi issued the following statement:
“The criminal action by the Zionist regime and its unacceptable violation of Iraqi soil is a blatant violation of regional and international law, and Iran will not tolerate it. We will not hesitate to give a crushing response to any act of aggression by the regime against Iran.”
Iran’s options
It is unclear what form Iran’s response to the attack will take. There are several possibilities, including a military strike against Israel, support for further attacks from Shi’ite militias in Iraq, or cyber attacks against Israeli targets. Iran has a history of using asymmetrical warfare tactics to counter the conventional military forces of the United States and its allies in the region. They have also used their state-sponsored cyber capabilities to disrupt US networks and data.
The precedent of Potential Iranian Retaliation
It is not unusual for Iran to employ the type of tactics they have used in the past. In June 2019, Iran shot down a US drone in the Persian Gulf. In that instance, Iran had issued several warnings for the US to stop flying drones in the area, but the US had not heeded them. In response, Iran used one of its advanced surface-to-air missiles to take down the drone.
Similarly, in April 2018, a cyber-attack originating from Iran targeted Israel’s water supply systems. The attack injected fraudulent instructions into the water supply in several cities, which resulted in the water becoming undrinkable. The attack was highly successful, and the Israeli government was forced to issue a public warning to its citizens not to drink the water.
The Aftermath
The most recent developments in the longstanding tension between Iran and Israel have serious implications for the region. If Iran follows through on its threat, it could be the spark that ignites a full-scale conflict between these two countries. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already made it clear that Israel would not tolerate any further aggression from Iran, and that the country would use “all the means at its disposal” to defend itself.
The international community has urged both sides to show restraint and to find a diplomatic solution to their differences. However, the tensions between the two countries have reached a fever pitch, and it is unclear if this will be resolved without further violence.
The recent drone attack by Israel and the response from Iran have increased the already high level of tension between the two countries. Iran has warned that it will respond to any further act of aggression with a harsh response, and Israel has made it clear that it will use all means at its disposal to defend itself. The international community has called for restraint, but the future of the region will depend on whether or not the two countries can find a way to peacefully resolve their differences. Only time will tell if the current situation will result in a full-blown conflict in the Middle East.
