Conflict, unrest, and political upheaval have become commonplace in semi-autonomous Ukraine. The nation lies between the Russia of Vladimir Putin and the European Union of Brussels, constantly at odds over one issue or another that divide these two entities’ political interests. One year ago, these tensions between Russia and Ukraine boiled over, leading to an armed conflict between the two nations that is still ongoing today.
This article seeks to examine the war in Ukraine one year later, detailing the events that led to it, analyzing its causes and effects, and forecasting its possible future implications.
Infamous Moscow-Kiev Conflict
To this day, the conflict between the governments of Ukraine and Russia remains one of the most-watched and discussed geo-political events since the dissolution of the Soviet bloc. Hence, it is beneficial to highlight the key milestones the conflict has gone through in its short history.
The beginning of the conflict can be traced back to the Russian intervention in Crimea in late February 2014, followed by the secession of Crimea from Ukraine and its subsequent annexation by the Russian Federation. Since then, the conflict has ensued in extensive combat along the front lines of eastern Ukraine as well as “hybrid” war by the Russian government in the political realm.
Throughout this conflict, it is estimated that approximately 10,000 civilians and military personnel have died as direct casualties and 15,000 have been wounded, according to the United Nations’ Human Rights Monitoring Mission.
Analyzing the Causes
When examining which factors led to the outbreak of violence in Ukraine, three main theories have been presented.
The first theory suggests that Russia simply wanted to re-assert its influence in Ukraine in order to counter the spread of the European Union’s influence in Ukraine.
The second theory proposes that the war was triggered by an internal power struggle between forces loyal to Moscow and those loyal to Kiev.
The third and most accepted explanation is that the conflict was a result of a military coup, orchestrated by the government of Ukraine, followed by the promotion of a new pro-Western regime by the West.
Examining the Effects
The effects resulting from Ukraine’s crisis are both widely visible and under-appreciated. From the numerous casualties on both sides to the humanitarian crisis experienced by many civilians living within the conflict zone, the conflict in Ukraine has taken a tremendous toll on the population.
Additionally, the economic effects of the conflict have been remarkable as well. Declines in infrastructure and industry have led to a drop in Ukraine’s GDP of over 15%, and Ukraine’s currency lost 25% of its value in the year following the onset of the crisis.
The social implications of the conflict have been harsh as well, with several cases of human trafficking, refugee displacement, and organized crime arising due to the breakdown of government control in certain areas.
Forecasting the Future
Given that the conflict in Ukraine has been in effect for over a year, it is reasonable to assume that the conflict will not completely come to an end in the near future. Despite efforts from the United Nations, leaders from both sides have failed to agree on a satisfactory ceasefire that would prove sustainable and demobilize the tens of thousands of troops stationed near the disputed territories.
Nevertheless, some progress has been made in the last year, since the onset of the conflict. The United States and the European Union have successfully enabled a coup for the overthrow of former president, Viktor Yanukovych, and a new government has come to power in Ukraine as a result, one more friendly to the interests of the West.
As a result of these developments, talks of a possible diplomatic resolution to the conflict have picked up in recent months, and some experts have forecast the potential possibility of a phased de-escalation of the conflict in the near future.
The war in Ukraine is one of the largest conflicts to have taken place in Europe within the past decade. The war’s causes are still disputed, with separate theories proposed to explain why it began, though most agree one of the main factor is the political maneuvering by both Moscow and Kiev.
One year into the conflict, the implications and effects of the war have been devastating, from a drop in Ukraine’s GDP to the displacement of countless civilians.
While the war has not reached its end yet, there have been hopeful signs of de-escalation. Negotiations in the form of the Minsk Accord have been proposed as a possible path to peace, indicating that the conflict in Ukraine may be winding towards a close in the near future.
