Ethiopia’s prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, has had a remarkable year full of achievements, most notably his Nobel Peace Prize in October 2019. But with a general election coming up in May, he faces a whole new challenge. It will be the first test of his turbulent tenure, as his government seeks to preserve the fragile peace it has achieved while managing the country’s rapid transition to an open democracy.

Background on Ethiopia and Abiy Ahmed

Straddling the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia is one of the oldest civilizations in the world. It has a population of about 115 million, making it the second most populous nation in Africa. In April 2018, Abiy Ahmed was appointed prime minister after a popular uprising led to the downfall of the country’s former dictator, Meles Zenawi.

Since taking office, Abiy has initiated a string of sweeping reforms, including legalizing opposition groups, freeing political prisoners, unblocking hundreds of websites, and bringing to justice those responsible for past human rights abuses. He oversaw a peace agreement between Ethiopia and its longtime enemy, Eritrea, and he provided the crucial leadership needed to resolve some of the country’s most challenging internal conflicts.

Nobel Peace Prize

Abiy was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize “for his efforts to achieve peace and international cooperation, and in particular for his decisive initiative to resolve the border conflict with neighboring Eritrea.” The prize granted him international recognition and a new level of respect among his countrymen. Immediately after the announcement, there were large celebrations throughout Ethiopia.

Past Election Challenges

Ethiopia has a long history of flawed elections. In 2005, the country’s ruling party, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front, won 99.6 percent of the vote. The next two elections saw the party’s share of the vote shrink from 99.3 to 96 percent. This ushered in a period of unrest, culminating in Abiy’s rise to power in 2018.

Abiy’s Reforms and Upcoming Election

Since taking office, Abiy has ushered in a period of political and economic reforms, with a focus on expanding civil liberties, economic growth, and improved relations with neighboring countries. He has released tens of thousands of political prisoners, and has abolished all restrictions on independent media outlets. He has also taken strong steps to combat corruption, and has made progress towards creating a more open and competitive economy.

The upcoming general election will be the first test of Abiy’s turbulent tenure. It will determine whether he will be able to preserve the fragile peace he has achieved, while managing the country’s rapid transition towards a fully open democracy.

Challenges Facing Abiy Ahmed

Despite his reforms, Abiy’s tenure has been marred by political unrest, human rights violations, and rampant corruption. Ethnic violence has been particularly pronounced, with hundreds of people killed and thousands displaced in a wave of inter-communal clashes. The government has also been accused of using excessive force in a bid to quell dissent in the wake of the protests.

Human rights and political freedoms remain a challenge. Opposition groups have accused Abiy’s government of cracking down on critics and journalists, while the judiciary remains largely unreformed. The country’s opposition parties are also deeply fragmented, leaving them ill-equipped to challenge Abiy at the polls.

Civil society groups, meanwhile, have called for electoral reform, citing a lack of transparency and fairness. The upcoming election has been postponed twice and the date is yet to be finalized, leaving many to question the level of preparedness and commitment of the government to hold a free and fair vote.

Outlook for Ethiopia’s Future

Abiy’s tenure has been full of highs and lows, and it remains to be seen if he will be able to build on his achievements during his two-year rule. As the country gears up for a new chapter in its history, it is clear that the November elections will be a key indicator of Ethiopia’s democratic progress.

Despite the many challenges, Abiy remains popular among his constituents, and has managed to rally the country around him in a time of strife and uncertainty. With Ethiopia’s future hanging in the balance, the upcoming elections will be a crucial moment for the Prime Minister and the country as a whole.