Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping have been deepening the bilateral ties between their respective nations over the past decade, solidifying their partnership on issues such as defence, energy, the Belt and Road Initiative and other projects. However, while their relationship remains mostly cordial, it’s been made evident that the two countries’ leaders have different approaches and expectations, revealing that Putin can pull off some unpredictable measures that have left Xi crestfallen.
Putin’s Pragmatism and shifting Tactics
The Russian leader has been known for his pragmatism and his willingness to use shifting tactics when determining a country’s best interests, whether it is using his influence and diplomatic skills in the international arena or pursuing bilateral relations within individual countries. The biggest example of Putin’s changed relationship with China manifested in his 2017 visit to Beijing. Trying to create equal opportunities with every country, the Kremlin was pushing for better terms on deals and agreements with China in order to protect Russia’s strategic interests and resources.
For instance, Putin demanded that China pay more wages to its labourers and technicians working in Russia, and asked for the Chinese government to provide Russia with better credit conditions and improved access to the import markets for its products. These requests proved to be too much for Xi, and he was ultimately left feeling insulted and frustrated.
Xi’s Stance on The BRI
Xi has always viewed the Belt and Road Initiative as a cornerstone of the two countries’ partnership and a chance to forge a lasting bond between them. China continues to invest heavily in the project, pushing for cooperation and increased partnership in a range of areas. China’s initiative has been met with enthusiasm from Russia, with the Kremlin pushing for joint energy and infrastructure projects, as well as aviation and logistics needs under the BRI.
Putin has also expressed interest in Chinese investments in the manufacturing sector and the oil and gas industry, although his support comes with several strings attached. Russian oil producers are keen to have a bigger say in the terms and conditions of energy contracts signed between Chinese buyers and Russian energy firms. It remains to be seen whether China would be willing to meet with such demands or not.
Putin’s U-turn on issues
On the surface, it seems that Putin and Xi have a cordial and friendly relationship, however, the Russian leader can easily spring some tricks and policy shifts onto the Chinese President at the most inopportune moments. This happened back in 2016 when Putin u-turned and refused to sign the China-Russia treaty of Good-Neighbourliness and Friendly Cooperation despite a certain degree of acceptance by the Chinese leadership following their negotiations the previous year.
Xi was left befuddled as the treaty was set to strengthen the strategic partnership between the two countries and provide multiple benefits for mutual development that were beneficial for both countries. Russian intelligence on the South China Sea also proved a contentious issue as Putin refused to provide information and support.
List of Putin’s tactics
1) Pragmatism
2) Demanding better terms on deals with China
3) Push for better wages and credit conditions
4) Push for better access to the import markets
5) Support for Chinese investments in the manufacturing sector and the oil and gas industry
6) U-turning on agreements
7) Refusal to provide intelligence on the South China Sea
The Pros and Cons of the Alliance
Despite their differences, the alliance between Russia and China remains strong and carried out major deals such as the 2018 Russia-China Investment Cooperation Pact and the Russia-China gas pipeline project. The natural gas pipeline has the ability to supply energy to China and South-East Asian countries with the use of existing infrastructure in Russia and Chinese owned energy resources. This not only helps China reduce its energy imports from other countries, but it also reduces its reliance on the US-controlled sea lanes in South-East Asia.
However, such deals have come with a few drawbacks. The Chinese manufacturing industry’s competitiveness has faced a challenge due to their labour costs in comparison to the low-cost labour available in Russia. In addition, although the gas pipeline provides energy security to China, any disruption in the supply of the energy resource can cause a huge problem for China, as was the case with the 2009 gas dispute between Russia and Ukraine.
As seen in the example of Putin and Xi’s interactions, it is evident that the bilateral relationship between Russia and China has its strengths and weaknesses. Despite the delicate balance of the partnership, the two countries have managed to withstand the test of time and continue to build up their relationship in a strong and steady manner. Although Putin may take some unpredictable steps, the partnership between the two nations will likely last for some time, as both countries look to benefit from the ongoing cooperation and partnership.